Evaluation of regional geological disaster susceptibility based on different coupling models: A case study of Shangcheng County of Henan Province

In order to explore the optimal evaluation model of geological disaster susceptibility, the authors take Shangcheng County as a case to analyze the influencing factors of geological disasters, combined with its geological conditions and geological disaster development characteristics. The evaluation index system was constructed using nine factors from three aspects of geographical environment, geological environment and human activities, which includes elevation, slope, aspect, profile curvature, vegetation coverage, engineering geological rock group, fault, road and water system. The weights of evidence (WofE) model, information value ( IV ) model and analytic hierarchy process-information value ( AHP-IV ) coupling model were used to analyze the susceptibility of geological disasters. The results show that the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the AHP-IV coupling model is the largest, and its evaluation effect the most more accurate, which is most suitable for the susceptibility evaluation of geological disasters in Shangcheng County. The extremely high-prone areas of geological disasters in Shangcheng County are distributed in strips along valleys and roads and the extremely high-prone areas are surrounded by the high-prone areas like clusters. While the middle and low-prone areas are mostly distributed in the northern plains with flat terrain and single lithology. The research results could provide scientific basis for local geological disaster prevention and control work, and also provide reference for geological disaster susceptibility zoning in similar areas.