Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory

YANG Mingyu; CHEN Hongqi; Qi Xiaobo; ZOU Zongshan; WANG Guangbing; LIU Hongyan

doi:10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.03.12

Geological Survey of China > 2023 > 10(3): 102-109. > DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.03.12

YANG Mingyu, CHEN Hongqi, Qi Xiaobo, et al. Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2023, 10(3): 102-109. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.03.12

Citation:

PDF (1331 KB)

Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory

1.
Xi’an Engineering Investigation and Design Research Institute of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Co., Ltd., Shanxi Xi’an 710054,China
2.
Geological Disaster Emergency Technical Guidance Center of MNR, Beijing 100081, China
3.
Poly Explosive Hami Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Hami, 839000, China
4.
School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

More Information

Received Date: February 13, 2023

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

The landslide movement distance is an important index to evaluate the scope of landslide hazard, therefore its prediction method is always being concerned. The actual landslide movement distance often has a strong randomness, but a deterministic calculation formula is offered in current prediction models without the consideration of the randomness. Based on this situation, Firstly, the theoretical model for the landslide movement distance proposed by predecessors was analyzed, and the landslide movement distance is mainly positively correlated with the landslide volume V and elevation H. Then, the authors proposed the general functional relation for the landslide movement distance. Secondly, based on 46 landslide cases induced by “5·12” Wenchuan Earthquake, the correlation analysis of the main factors affecting the landslide movement distance was carried out. It is concluded that the landslide volume V, elevation H and their combination VH have significant influence on the landslide movement distance, and the multiple regression statistical model for the landslide movement distance was established. Finally, the statistical model for the landslide movement distance based on the reliability theory was put forward, according to different engineering importance. The calculation example shows that the higher the confidence is, the larger the predicted range of the landslide movement distance will be, with the higher the relocation and protection cost. Therefore, a reasonable degree of confidence should be chosen according to the actual situation. This study is helpful to further optimize the statistical model for the prediction of the landslide movement distance, and then provides reliable evidence for landslide disaster evaluation and control.
- landslide,
- movement distance,
- prediction model,
- multiple regression analysis,
- reliability

FullText(HTML)

References (23)

References

[1]	黄润秋,裴向军,李天斌.汶川地震触发大光包巨型滑坡基本特征及形成机理分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):730-741. Huang R Q,Pei X J,Li T B.Basic characteristics and formation mechanism of the largest scale landslide at Daguangbao occurred during the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):730-741.
[2]	樊晓一,乔建平.“坡”、“场”因素对大型滑坡运动特征的影响[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(11):2337-2347. Fan X Y,Qiao J P.Influence of landslide and ground factors on large-scale landslide movement[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(11):2337-2347.
[3]	Aaron J,Mcdougall S,Nolde N.Two methodologies to calibrate landslide runout models[J].Landslides,2019,16(5):907-920.
[4]	Xu Q,Li H J,He Y S,et al.Comparison of data-driven models of loess landslide runout distance estimation[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2019,78(2):1281-1294.
[5]	Scheidegger A E.On the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides[J].Rock Mechanics,1973,5(4):231-236.
[6]	Sassa R.Measurement of the apparent friction angle during rapid loading by the high-speed high stress ring shear apparatus—Interpretation of the relationship between landslide volume and the apparent friction during motion[J].Landslides,1992,1-2:545-552.
[7]	刘红岩,阎锡东,张小趁,等.滑坡运动距离预测的统计模型及其改进[J].灾害学,2022,37(4):6-10,17. Liu H Y,Yan X D,Zhang X C,et al.The statistical model for the movement distance forecast of the landslide and its improve-ment[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2022,37(4):6-10,17.
[8]	王家鼎,张倬元.地震诱发高速黄土滑坡的机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):670-674. Wang J D,Zhang Z Y.A study on the mechanism of high-speed loess landslide induced by earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):670-674.
[9]	樊晓一. 岩土体与场地条件作用下的滑坡碎屑流运动机制研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2017. Fan X Y.Landslide-Debris Flow Movement Mechanism Under Rock and Soil Mass and Ground Conditions[M].Beijing:Science Press,2017.
[10]	王鼐,王兰民,王谦,等.黄土高原地震作用下黄土滑坡滑距预测方法[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):533-540. Wang N,Wang L M,Wang Q,et al.Forecasting method for sliding distance of seismic landslides on the Loess Plateau,China[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(4):533-540.
[11]	常晁瑜,薄景山,李孝波,等.地震黄土滑坡滑距预测的BP神经网络模型[J].地震工程学报,2020,42(6):1609-1614. Chang C Y,Bo J S,Li X B,et al.A BP neural network model for forecasting sliding distance of seismic loess landslides[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2020,42(6):1609-1614.
[12]	Nian T K,Zhang Y J,Wu H,et al.Runout simulation of seismic landslides using discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) with state-dependent shear strength model[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,2020,57(8):1183-1196.
[13]	Mao J,Liu X N,Zhang C,et al.Runout prediction and deposit characteristics investigation by the distance potential-based discrete element method:the 2018 Baige landslides,Jinsha River,China[J].Landslides,2020,18(1):235-249.
[14]	Liu Z Y,Su L J,Zhang C L,et al.Investigation of the dynamic process of the Xinmo landslide using the discrete element met-hod[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2020,123:103561.
[15]	陈红旗,徐永强,庄茂国,等.地质灾害应急支撑体系建设基本问题分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(4):108-111. Chen H Q,Xu Y Q,Zhuang M G,et al.Study on the construction of geological disaster emergency support system[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2011,22(4):108-111.
[16]	郑光,许强,彭双麒.岩质滑坡-碎屑流的运动距离计算公式研究[J].岩土力学,2019,40(12):4897-4906. Zheng G,Xu Q,Peng S Q.Calculation model of the long-runout distance of rock avalanche[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2019,40(12):4897-4906.
[17]	詹威威,黄润秋,裴向军,等.沟道型滑坡-碎屑流运动距离经验预测模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(1):154-163. Zhan W W,Huang R Q,Pei X J,et al.Empirical prediction model for movement distance of gully-type rock avalanches[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2017,25(1):154-163.
[18]	樊晓一,张睿骁,胡晓波.沟谷地形参数对滑坡运动距离的影响研究[J].地质力学学报,2020,26(1):106-114. Fan X Y,Zhang R X,Hu X B.Study on the influence of valley topographic parameter on the moving distance of landslide[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2020,26(1):106-114.
[19]	樊晓一,胡晓波,张睿骁,等.开阔型地形条件对滑坡运动距离的影响研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,27(5):188-196. Fan X Y,Hu X B,Zhang R X,et al.Study on the open topography influence on the moving distances of landslides[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2018,27(5):188-196.
[20]	杨海龙,裴向军,樊晓一.坡脚型滑坡运动特征分析及运动距离预测[J].工程地质学报,2019,27(6):1379-1388. Yang H L,Pei X J,Fan X Y.Movement characteristics and distance prediction of slope toe landslides[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2019,27(6):1379-1388.
[21]	樊晓一,冷晓玉,段晓冬.坡脚型与偏转型地震滑坡运动距离及地形因素作用[J].岩土力学,2015,36(5):1380-1388. Fan X Y,Leng X Y,Duan X D.Influence of topographical factors on movement distances of toe-type and turning-type landslides triggered by earthquake[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2015,36(5):1380-1388.
[22]	李秀珍,孔纪名.“5·12”汶川地震诱发滑坡的滑动距离预测[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2010,42(5):243-249. Li X Z,Kong J M.Runout distance estimation of landslides triggered by “5·12” Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition),2010,42(5):243-249.
[23]	王新生,刘红岩.爆破振动速度回归分析中K值的合理选用[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005,27(11):103-105,109 Wang X S,Liu H Y.Reasonable selection of k in blasting vibration velocity regression analysis and its application[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2005,27(11):103-105,109

[1]	FENG Shoujuan. Emergency decision method of regional environmental emergencies based on gridding logistic regression model[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2023, 10(6): 95-100. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.06.11
[2]	GENG Shufeng. Metallogenic regularity and prospecting prediction geological model of Qingchengzi ore concentration area in Eastern Liaoning Province[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2023, 10(5): 43-49. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.05.06
[3]	LIU Zhongnan, GAO Yinmei, JIANG He, HUANG Yongwei, DING Huadong, YAN Zhiqiang. Sensitivity analysis of inducing factors of slope geological hazards based on CF Model: A case study of Xinning County in Hunan Province[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2023, 10(4): 107-115. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2023.04.13
[4]	XU Yizi, FAN Xiaoyi, ZHANG Youyi, TIAN Shujun, WEN Xiang, LIU Haonan, ZHENG Yufeng, LIAO Hongyang. Numerical analysis on dynamic characteristics of Zhonghai Village landslide in Hanyuan County of Sichuan Province[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2022, 9(4): 102-111. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2022.04.12
[5]	GUO Guangshan, LI Hao, TIAN Yongjing, DU Kai. Macrolithotype prediction and 3D geological modeling based on logging parameters[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2022, 9(1): 125-130. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2022.01.13
[6]	WANG Peng, WANG Yanhe, HAN Xiaolong, HAN Hao, ZHANG Deming, ZHANG Bingqiang. Dynamic changes of vegetation coverage in Heihe River Basin from 1990 to 2019 and the effect of temperature on it[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2021, 8(3): 64-71. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2021.03.08
[7]	GUO Xiaoqian, LIU Yongquan. Demand projection of natural gas in China based on the hybrid model of sector consumption[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2020, 7(4): 118-124. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2020.04.15
[8]	WANG Yi, YANG Xuejun, BAI Xianzhou, YE Chunlin, JIA Xiaochuan, XIONG Changli, HUANG Baixin, LUO Gai. Crystallinity and metamorphism of illite from Triassic strata in Henan County of Qinghai Province[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2020, 7(3): 67-74. DOI: 10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2020.03.09
[9]	QIAN Jing, WANG Guoqiang, HUANG Youbo. Application of linear regression analytical method to predict iron ore resources of Xuzhou area[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2016, 3(2): 21-23.
[10]	ZHANG Ya-wei, YAN Jia-yong, LIU Zhen-dong, ZHANG Yong-qian, XU Yao. Multiples Attenuation Approach by F-K and Radon Transform[J]. Geological Survey of China, 2015, 2(3): 22-27.

Cited By

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

1.	石子健，陈稳，盛逸凡，徐光黎. 碎屑流滑坡变形及运动特征研究——以恩施市沙子坝滑坡为例. 水文地质工程地质. 2025(01): 149-158 .
2.	尹东，王尚洁. 川南某换流站复杂堆积体边坡开挖变形机制及抗震加固效果评价. 中国地质调查. 2024(04): 101-113 . 本站查看

Other cited types(0)

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (74) PDF downloads (233) Cited by(2)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

Other cited types(0)

Catalog

Prediction model for the landslide movement distance induced by earthquake based on the reliability theory

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

Other cited types(0)

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content