多降雨频率下泥石流精细化风险评价——以四川省康定市姚康坝沟为例

    Debris flow risk assessment under multiple rainfall frequencies: A case study of Yaokangba gully in Kangding City of Sichuan Province

    • 摘要: 为探究不同降雨情景下的泥石流风险,以四川省康定市雅拉乡姚康坝沟为研究对象,对4种降雨条件下的泥石流潜在风险进行评价。首先,采用数值仿真方法重现泥石流动力演化全过程,对模型进行标定并完成研究区危险性区划; 然后,基于建筑物受损特征与泥石流流深的定量关系,构建易损性评价模型; 最后,通过耦合危险性与易损性,实现了姚康坝沟沟口蒙庆村的精细化定量风险评价。研究结果表明: ①在降雨频率分别为20%、5%、2%、1%的情况下,泥石流的最大流速分别为6.2 m/s、7.0 m/s、7.7 m/s、8.3 m/s,最大流深分别为6.7 m、7.2 m、8.0 m、8.8 m; ②当降雨频率分别为5%、2%、1%时,受泥石流威胁的建筑物数量分别增至8栋、10栋和12栋; ③对比20%与5%降雨频率下,高风险区的面积从2 463 m2显著扩大至4 689 m2。研究结果可为雅拉乡地质灾害及风险管控提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: In order to explore the risk of debris flow under different rainfall scenarios, the researchers in this paper took Yaokangba gully in Yala Township of Kangding City in Sichuan Province as the research object to evaluate the potential risk of debris flow under four rainfall conditions. Firstly, the numerical simulation method was used to reproduce the whole process of debris flow dynamic evolution, and the model was calibrated to complete the risk zoning of the study area. Then, a vulnerability evaluation model was constructed based on the quantitative relationship between the damage characteristics of buildings and the depth of debris flow. Finally, the refined quantitative risk assessment of Mengqing Village in the outlet of Yaokangba gully was realized, through the coupling of risk and vulnerability assessment. The results showed that under the rainfall frequency of 20%, 5%, 2% and 1%, the maximum flow velocity of Yaokangba gully debris flow was 6.2 m/s, 7.0 m/s, 7.7 m/s and 8.3 m/s respectively, and the maximum flow depth was 6.7 m, 7.2 m, 8.0 m and 8.8 m respectively. When the rainfall frequency decreased from 5%, 2% to 1%, the number of buildings threatened by debris flow increased to 8, 10 and 12 respectively. The area of high-risk area increased significantly from 2.463×103 m2 to 4.689×103 m2 under 20% and 5% rainfall frequency. The research results could provide scientific basis for geological disasters and risk control in Yala Township.

       

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