基于3D-MICE模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态地质环境质量评价及其影响因素

    Assessment of eco-geological environmental quality and its influencing factors in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin based on the 3D-MICE coupling model

    • 摘要: 为服务黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展国家战略,实现生态地质环境精细化管控,揭示黄河流域甘肃段生态地质环境质量(eco-geological environmental quality, EGEQ)的空间分异规律,并量化其关键驱动因素, 研究基于“地质稳定性-生态敏感性-资源压力”(geological stability-ecological sensitivity-resource pressure, GEP)理论框架,构建了包含9项指标的三维多指标耦合评价(three-dimensional multi-indicator coupling evaluation, 3D-MICE)模型,并采用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)-熵权法(entropy weight method, EWM)组合赋权法确定指标权重,运用地理信息系统(geographic information system, GIS)空间分析技术完成了500 m×500 m网格尺度的EGEQ评价。综合运用相关分析、地理探测器及随机森林(random forest, RF)模型,揭示了EGEQ空间分异的主导驱动因子及其交互作用。①研究区EGEQ空间异质性显著,总体呈“南高北低”格局。其中:高质量区(Ⅰ)面积占比15.35%,主要分布于甘南高寒草甸-湿地区; 中和低质量区(Ⅲ和Ⅳ)占比65.12%,广布于陇东、陇西黄土丘陵区。②降水集中度(precipitation concentration degree, PCD)与土壤侵蚀模数(soil erosion modulus, SEM)呈显著正相关(R2=0.83),PCD值每增加10%,SEM值平均上升约15.2%。③因子驱动力分析表明,EGEQ空间格局是自然与人为因素非线性叠加驱动的结果。其中强降水是关键的自然驱动因子,而矿产资源开发与过度放牧等人为活动通过破坏地质体稳定性和加剧水土流失,与自然因素产生协同放大效应,共同塑造了区域生态地质环境质量的分异格局。研究验证了3D-MICE模型在复杂山区生态地质环境评价中的有效性与先进性,所生成的高精度评价结果与分区方案,可为黄河流域甘肃段国土空间生态修复工程的“分区管控、精准施策”提供直接的科学依据和决策支持。

       

      Abstract: To serve the national strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin and achieve refined management and control of the eco-geological environment, this study aims to reveal the spatial differentiation law of the eco-geological environmental quality (EGEQ) in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin and quantify its key driving factors. Based on the theoretical framework of "geological stability-ecological sensitivity-resource pressure" (GEP), a three-dimensional multi-indicator coupling evaluation model (3D-MICE) containing 9 indicators was constructed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-entropy weight method (EWM) combined weighting method was used to determine the indicator weights, and the geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis technology was applied to complete the EGEQ evaluation at the 500m×500m grid scale. On the basis of comprehensive application of correlation analysis, geographical detectors and random forest (RF) models, the dominant driving factors and their interaction effects of the EGEQ spatial differentiation were revealed.①The EGEQ in the study area showed significant spatial heterogeneity, generally presenting a pattern of "high in the south and low in the north". Among them, the area of the high-quality area (Ⅰ) accounted for 15.35%, mainly distributed in the alpine meadow-wetland area of Gannan, and the area of the medium-and-below-quality areas (Ⅲ and Ⅳ) accounted for 65.12%, widely distributed in the loess hilly areas of Eastern and Western Gansu.②There was a significant positive correlation between the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and the soil erosion modulus (SEM) (R2=0.83). For every 10% increase in PCD value, SEM value increased by an average of 15.2%.③The analysis of factor driving forces showed that the EGEQ spatial pattern was the result of the non-linear superposition of natural and human factors. Heavy precipitation was the key natural driving factor, while human activities such as mineral resource development and over-grazing, by destroying the stability of geological bodies and intensifying soil erosion, had a synergistic amplification effect with natural factors, jointly shaping the differentiation pattern of the regional eco-geological environmental quality.This study verifies the effectiveness and advancement of the 3D-MICE model in the evaluation of the eco-geological environment in complex mountainous areas. The generated high-precision evaluation results and zoning schemes could provide direct scientific basis and decision-making support for the "zoning management and control, precise policy implementation" of the territorial space ecological restoration project in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回