2000年以来二氧化碳地质封存研究动态与趋势

    Research dynamics and trends in carbon dioxide geological sequestration since 2000

    • 摘要: 碳捕集、利用与封存(carbon capture, utilization and storage, CCUS)是实现碳中和的兜底技术,已引起国际学界广泛关注。基于2000—2024年CNKI与WOS数据库的1 519篇文献,通过文献计量与关键词聚类分析,系统梳理了该领域的研究动态与趋势。研究显示: 全球发文量年均增长12%,中国自2006年起步后,于2023年达峰值(557篇),重点聚焦“咸水层”“数值模拟”“碳中和”与“封存潜力”,而国际研究更倾向“封存”“注入”“容量”等工程实践。关键技术进展体现在4个方面: ①静态体积法和容量计算方法普遍用于量化储量,全球封存潜力评估框架初步形成; ②建立了完整的储层评级系统,深部咸水层成为主流封存靶体,其他新型储层不断被发掘; ③数值模拟多场耦合技术显著提升,大大提高了储层评估和潜力评估的可靠性,当前已有MIN3P、TOUGH等多种数值模拟器被开发并应用于实践; ④环境风险评估机制逐步完善,通过四维地震监测与无人机遥感可实现泄漏预警。但二氧化碳地质封存仍面临储层参数不确定性导致封存效率波动、长期监测技术不成熟引发泄漏风险、环境监测成本高等挑战,有待进一步开发。研究对二氧化碳地质封存领域发展方向具有指导意义,可为今后二氧化碳地质封存研究重点提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a bottom line technology for achieving carbon neutrality, which has attracted widespread attention from the international academic community. The research trends in this field were systematically summarized by bibliometric and keyword clustering analysis, based on 1 519 literature from CNKI and WOS databases from 2000 to 2024. The research shows that the average annual growth rate of global publications was 12%. China reached its peak (557 articles) in 2023 after starting in 2006, which focused on "saltwater", "numerical simulation", "carbon neutrality" and "storage potential". While the international research tends to favor engineering practices such as "sequstration", "injection" and "capacity". The key technological progress was reflected in four aspects. (1) The static volume method and capacity calculation equation were widely used to quantify reserves. The global storage potential assessment framework has preliminarily formed. (2) A complete reservoir rating system has been established, with deep saline reservoirs becoming the mainstream target for storage, and other new types of reservoirs being constantly explored. (3) The numerical simulation multi field coupling technology has significantly improved, which greatly enhanced the reliability of reservoir evaluation and potential assessment. Currently, various numerical simulators such as MIN3P and TOUGH have been developed and applied in practice. (4) The environmental risk assessment mechanism was gradually improved, and leakage warning was achieved through four-dimensional earthquake monitoring and unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing. However, geological sequestration of carbon dioxide still faces challenges such as uncertainty in reservoir parameters leading to fluctuations in storage efficiency, immature long-term monitoring technology causing leakage risks, and high environmental monitoring costs, which need further development. The research has guiding significance for the development direction of carbon dioxide geological sequestration field and could provide references for future research focus of carbon dioxide geological sequestration.

       

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