基于TrAdaBoost-CatBoost模型的地质灾害易发性评估——以镇坪县城关镇为例

    Assessment of geological disaster susceptibility based on TrAdaBoost-CatBoost Model: A case study of Chengguan Town in Zhenping County

    • 摘要: 地质灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾至关重要,但镇域常因样本稀缺导致评价因子权重难以确定。以陕西省安康市镇坪县城关镇(目标域)为例,提出基于迁移学习的地质灾害易发性预测模型。采用TrAdaBoost算法,将镇坪县全域数据(源域)与城关镇数据结合,以CatBoost为基准学习器构建TrAdaBoost-CatBoost模型,实现知识迁移。结果表明: 迁移策略显著提升了目标域性能,TrAdaBoost-CatBoost模型受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve, ROC)下面积(area under the curve,AUC)达0.96,较仅用城关镇数据的CatBoost模型ROC曲线AUC(0.94)提升了0.02; 与传统模型对比,TrAdaBoost-CatBoost模型ROC曲线AUC显著优于支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)模型ROC曲线AUC(0.92)和随机森林(random forest,RF)模型ROC曲线AUC(0.93),分别高出0.04和0.03; 迁移框架具普适性,TrAdaBoost-SVM模型ROC曲线AUC为0.94(较SVM模型ROC曲线AUC提升了0.02),TrAdaBoost-RF模型ROC曲线AUC为0.95(较RF模型的AUC提升了0.02),两者性能均得到提升,但TrAdaBoost-CatBoost模型(AUC=0.96)仍保持最优。该模型为小样本区域地质灾害评价提供了高精度解决方案,验证了迁移学习在数据稀缺场景的有效性,对类似区域灾害风险防控具有实际参考意义。

       

      Abstract: To address the challenge of determining the weights of evaluation factors in geological disaster susceptibility assessment due to insufficient sample data, this study proposed a geological disaster susceptibility prediction model based on transfer learning strategy, taking Chengguan Town of Zhenping County in Shaanxi Province as a case study. The TrAdaBoost algorithm was employed, taking disaster data from Zhenping County as the source domain with data from the target region (Chengguan Town). CatBoost was used as the base learner to establish the TrAdaBoost-CatBoost geological disaster susceptibility model.Results show TrAdaBoost-CatBoost model significantly improved AUC value from 0.94 to 0.96 compared with CatBoost model using only Chengguan Town data. Additionally, TrAdaBoost-CatBoost model outperformed traditional support vector machine (SVM) model and random forest (RF) model in ROC curve performance with the AUC of TrAdaboost-CatBoost model of 0.96, the AUC of SVM model of 0.92, and the AUC of RF model of 0.93. The migration framework was universal, the AUC of TrAdaBoost-SVM model was 0.94, and the AUC of TrAdaBoost-RF model was 0.95. Their performance was both improved, but TrAdaBoost-CatBoost model still remained optimal. The findings could provide valuable insights for geological disaster susceptibility assessment in scenarios with limited disaster samples.

       

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