基于特征指标筛选与负样本优化的山区滑坡易发性评价

    Susceptibility assessment of mountain landslide based on feature indicator screening and negative sample optimization

    • 摘要: 滑坡易发性评价是开展灾害监测预警工作的基础,如何科学、合理地筛选特征指标并优化评价样本仍是当前棘手且易被忽略的问题。以湖南省龙山县为例,基于斜坡单元提取高程、坡度、坡向等15项特征指标,经主成分分析(principal component analysis, PCA)、相关性分析与共线性诊断筛选优质指标,提出一种优化负样本(optimize negative samples, ONS)的方法构建评价样本,然后使用确定性系数-随机森林(certainty factor-random forest, CF-RF) 模型进行滑坡易发性制图,并根据受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线与合理性分析检验预测结果准确性。研究表明: ONS-CF-RF模型能显著提升模型评价精度,其受试者ROC曲线下面积(area under curve, AUC)较CF-RF模型AUC提升了10.64%; 研究区滑坡高、极高易发区较集中于研究区西北角人类聚集区,低易发区分布于受人类活动影响较小的高海拔山区。研究成果可为龙山县滑坡灾害防治提供科学指导,也可为同类型区域滑坡易发性分区提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Landslide susceptibility assessment is the basis of disaster monitoring and early warning. How to scientifically and reasonably screen feature indicators and optimize assessment samples is still a difficult and easily ignored problem. The authors took Longshan County of Hunan Province as an example, and screened high-quality indicators by principal component analysis (PCA), correlation analysis and collinearity diagnosis, based on 15 feature indicators such as elevation, slope and slope direction. An optimize negative samples (ONS) method was proposed to construct assessment samples, and then certainty factor-random forest (CF-RF) model was used to map landslide susceptibility. The accuracy of prediction results was tested according to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and rationality analysis. The results show that ONS-CF-RF model can significantly enhance the accuracy of model assessment. The area under curve (AUC) of this model has increased by 10.64% compared to the AUC of CF-RF model. The high landslide prone area is concentrated in human gathering area in the northwest corner of the study area, while the low landslide prone area is distributed in the high-altitude mountainous area which is less affected by human activities. The research results could provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of landslide disaster in Longshan County, and could also provide references for the landslide prone zoning in the same type of region.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回