单体滑坡灾害风险评价与防控对策——以怀化市桑植县城老电厂滑坡为例

    Risk assessment and prevention and control measures for individual landslide disaster: A case study of Laodianchang landslide in Sangzhi County of Huaihua City

    • 摘要: 单体滑坡定量风险评价一直是滑坡研究领域的重点及难点,通过对不同降雨重现期下滑坡危险性的分析,定量计算单体滑坡风险对滑坡风险防控具有重要意义。以怀化市桑植县城老电厂滑坡为研究对象,结合Gumbel分布理论、滑坡灾害强度和易损性定量评估,建立了单体滑坡灾害风险定量评价的方法及评价过程,得出了不同降雨条件下老电厂滑坡的经济损失和人员伤亡风险,提出了滑坡风险防控优选方案比选方法。结果表明: ①滑坡风险评价应综合考虑滑坡体的运动特征和影响范围内的承灾体分布及易损性等因素,采用定性-定量相结合的方法,确保评估结果的准确性和科学性,同时,风险评价结果可用于确定差异化的滑坡防控措施,以实现经济效益、社会效益和环境效益的最优化; ②20 a和50 a降雨重现期的人员伤亡风险与经济风险较10 a、20 a分别增加了11.41%、18.64%,说明随着暴雨重现期的延长,滑坡区域内室内人员和经济风险值也呈现出递增的趋势; ③对比各种风险控制方案,推荐采用抗滑桩+截排水沟的整体治理措施。研究成果丰富了滑坡灾害风险评价的理论体系,可为政府和相关部门制定科学合理的防控策略提供科学依据和技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Quantitative risk assessment of individual landslide has always been a focal and challenging aspect of landslide research. The quantitative calculation of individual landslide risk and analysis of landslide risk during different rainfall return periods is of great significance for landslide risk prevention and control. The authors took Laodianfang landslide in Sangzhi County of Huaihua City as the research object and combined Gumbel distribution theory, landslide disaster intensity, and vulnerability quantitative assessment to establish the method and evaluation process of the quantitative assessment of individual landslide disaster risk. The economic losses and casualty risks of Laodianfang landslide under different rainfall conditions have been obtained, and a method for comparing and selecting optimal landslide risk prevention and control schemes has been proposed. The results are as follows. ① The movement characteristics of the landslide mass and the distribution and vulnerability of the disaster bearing bodies within the influence range should be comprehensively considered during landslide risk assessment. And the qualitative-quantitative combination method should be adopted to ensure the accuracy and scientificity of the assessment results. At the same time, the risk assessment results can be used to determine differentiated landslide prevention and control measures to achieve the optimization of economic, social, and environmental benefits. ② The casualty risks and economic risks during 20-year and 50-year rainfall return periods both have increased by 11.41% and 18.64% compared with those during 20-year rainfall return period. This indicates that as the rainstorm return period extends, the indoor personnel and economic risk values within the landslide area also show an increasing trend. ③ The overall treatment measures of anti-slide piles and drainage ditches were adopted after comparing various risk control schemes. The research results could enrich the theoretical system of landslide disaster risk assessment and provide scientific basis and technical support for the government and relevant departments to formulate scientific and reasonable prevention and control strategies.

       

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