加权信息量模型在地质灾害易发性评价中的应用——以山东省宁阳县为例

    Application of weighted information value model in geological hazard susceptibility assessment: A case study of Ningyang County in Shandong Province

    • 摘要: 山东省宁阳县地质灾害隐患点总体数量较少,但分布相对集中,其地质灾害防治工作面临较大挑战和压力,区域地质灾害易发性评价对地质灾害防治具有重要意义。以宁阳县为研究区,选取坡度、坡向、高程、归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)、工程地质岩组、与断裂距离共计6个评价指标,构建加权信息量模型,开展地质灾害易发性评价。评价结果表明,研究区可划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区、非易发区4类,面积分别为13.28 km2、75.33 km2、260.46 km2、775.93 km2,分别占县域总面积的1.18%、6.70%、23.15%、68.97%。通过受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC曲线)的线下面积(area under the curve, AUC)进行检验,其值为93.68,评价精度较高。评价结果能够为宁阳县地质灾害预测及防治提供地质依据,同时可为地质灾害隐患点相对较少地区的地质灾害易发性评价工作提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Ningyang County in Shandong Province has the characteristics of a small number of hidden points of geological hazards and their distribution is relatively concentrated. However, its geological hazard prevention and control work still face great challenges and pressure. Therefore, the evaluation of regional geological hazard susceptibility is of great significance to the prevention and control of geological hazards. The authors took Ningyang County as the research object and selected six influencing factors including slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, NDVI, engineering geological rock and distance to fault to construct weighted information value model and carry out geological-hazard susceptibility assessment. The evaluation results show that the study area can be divided into four zones, that is high-prone zone, medium-prone zone, low-prone zone and non-prone zone, with area of 13.28 km2, 75.33 km2, 260.46 km2 and 775.93 km2 respectively, accounting for 1.18%, 6.70%, 23.15% and 68.97% of the total area of the county. The value of the AUC for ROC was used to verify the accuracy, and the AUC value is 93.68, indicating high assessment accuracy. The evaluation results could provide geological basis for the prediction and prevention of geological hazards in Ningyang County, and provide references for the assessment of geological hazard susceptibility in areas with relatively few potential geological hazards.

       

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