基于斜坡单元与AHP-证据权耦合模型的区域地质灾害危险性评价

    Regional geological hazard risk assessment based on slope unit and AHP-evidence weight coupling model

    • 摘要: 危险性评价是我国西南山区防灾减灾的重要手段,目前大部分评价体系采用的评价模型层次浅显且指标单一,针对该问题,提出层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)-证据权耦合模型,对马尔康地质灾害危险性展开评价研究。结合ArcGIS水文分析和人机交互实现了斜坡单元划分的优化,将研究区划分为5 695个斜坡单元,选取了年均降雨量、地层岩性、坡度、坡向、距水系距离、距断层距离、距道路距离、斜坡高差8个指标因子,采用AHP-证据权耦合模型分别求解指标因子权重值及下属区间对地质灾害事件的贡献度,得到研究区地质灾害危险性分区图。结果表明,高危险区和极高危险区分别占研究区总面积的14.96%和8.46%,主要集中在水系两侧的居民聚集区,受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)曲线下面积(area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic,AUC)为0.78,模型整体预测精度较好。研究成果可为区域地质灾害的危险性评价提供参考,对于西南山区地质灾害排查的前期工作开展具有指导意义。

       

      Abstract: Risk assessment is an important means of disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous areas in the southwestern China. However, most current evaluation systems use models of shallow level and with single indicator. To address this problem, the authors in this paper proposed the AHP-evidence weight coupling model to conduct risk issessment of geological hazard in Maerkang. ArcGIS hydrological analysis and human-computer interaction were combined to optimize the division of slope units. The study area was divided into 5 695 slope units, and 8 index factors were selected, including rainfall, stratigraphic lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance from water system, distance from fault, and distance from road. AHP-evidence weight coupling model was used to respectively solve the index factor weight value and the contribution of the subordinate intervals to geological hazard events, and the geological hazard risk zoning map of the study area was obtained. The results show that high-risk areas and extremely high-risk areas account for 14.96% and 8.46% of the total area respectively, and these areas are mainly concentrated in residential areas on both sides of the water system. The AUC is 0.78, and the model evaluation accuracy is good. The research results could provide references for the risk assessment of regional geological hazards and have guiding significance for the preliminary work of geological hazard investigation in the southwestern mountainous areas.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回