Abstract:
Ningbo City is located in the southeastern coastal area of China, and frequent extreme weather conditions such as typhoons and heavy rainstorms have numerous collapses and landslides. The situation of disaster prevention and mitigation is severe and susceptibility assessment is of great practical significance. Seven factors in this paper were selected based on the study of disaster-forming environment, including slope, relief amplitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), the engineering rock group, distance from house, distance from road. Taking 489 collapse and landslide sites as smaple data, the researchers in this paper randomly selected 70% of the data as the training samples and 30% as the test samples, and applied the coupling analysis of certainty factor (CF) model and logistic regression (LR) model for the susceptibility assessment of collapses and landslides. The results indicated that the area ratio of high-prone zones for collapse and landslide disasters was 11.76%, and the proportion of test samples accounted for 86.3%. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to check the evaluation results, and the accuracy rate reached 93.8%, indicating that the evaluation result was reasonable and of high-precision. The CF-LR coupling model could be used to objectively evaluate the susceptibility of collapses and landslides in Ningbo and provide technical references for disaster prevention work.