基于CF-LR耦合模型的宁波市崩塌滑坡地质灾害易发性评价

    Collapse and landslide susceptibility assessment based on the coupling method of certainty factor model and logistic regression model in Ningbo

    • 摘要: 宁波市地处我国东南沿海地区,频发的台风暴雨导致崩塌、滑坡灾害多发,防灾减灾形势严峻,评估崩塌、滑坡的地质灾害易发性具有十分重要的现实意义。基于孕灾环境分析,选取坡度、起伏度、地形湿度指数(topographic wetness index, TWI)、汇流动力指数(stream power index, SPI)、工程地质岩组、距房屋距离、距道路距离7个因子,以489个崩塌、滑坡为样本数据,随机抽取70%为训练样本、30%为测试样本,采用确定性系数(certainty factor, CF)-逻辑回归(logistic regression, LR)耦合模型进行崩塌滑坡地质灾害易发性评价。结果表明: 宁波市崩塌滑坡灾害高易发区面积占比为11.76%, 测试样本数量占比为86.3%, 受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线检验评价结果正确率为93.8%,评价结果合理、精度高。采用CF-LR耦合模型可以较客观地表达宁波市崩塌滑坡地质灾害易发性,为防灾减灾工作提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: Ningbo City is located in the southeastern coastal area of China, and frequent extreme weather conditions such as typhoons and heavy rainstorms have numerous collapses and landslides. The situation of disaster prevention and mitigation is severe and susceptibility assessment is of great practical significance. Seven factors in this paper were selected based on the study of disaster-forming environment, including slope, relief amplitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), the engineering rock group, distance from house, distance from road. Taking 489 collapse and landslide sites as smaple data, the researchers in this paper randomly selected 70% of the data as the training samples and 30% as the test samples, and applied the coupling analysis of certainty factor (CF) model and logistic regression (LR) model for the susceptibility assessment of collapses and landslides. The results indicated that the area ratio of high-prone zones for collapse and landslide disasters was 11.76%, and the proportion of test samples accounted for 86.3%. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to check the evaluation results, and the accuracy rate reached 93.8%, indicating that the evaluation result was reasonable and of high-precision. The CF-LR coupling model could be used to objectively evaluate the susceptibility of collapses and landslides in Ningbo and provide technical references for disaster prevention work.

       

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